Is tonight's game against VCU basically a play-in for the NCAA tournament for George Mason?

At this point, with how well the Patriots are currently playing, I'm not about to end the wild speculations. And honestly, they aren't even that wild when you think about it.  Consider the magnitude of tonight's game on the road against VCU.  This game can do a lot for George Mason's final push before Selection Sunday and show people out there on national television how for real this team actually is. Let's breakdown the impending impacts of this game:

-VCU is the best remaining opponent on the Patriots' schedule. Although the Bracketbuster match-up at Northern Iowa looked enticing from the beginning, the Panthers have fallen on hard times after losing their leading rebounder Lucas O'Rear for the season due to injury.  Their RPI is falling fast and is currently at #77 after three straight losses. VCU on the other hand still has an RPI of #60 despite their loss on Saturday and still has room to improve after tonight's game when they play Wichita State (#55) this weekend. Overall I think a win on the road against a team like VCU that received a lot of praise earlier in the season would look very good to the selection committee.  

-A win tonight over VCU and a ODU loss clinches first place in the CAA for George Mason. Basically a win tonight is the last big hurdle for the Patriots on their road to winning the CAA's regular season crown. Why is that important? Well two reason actually. First, finishing #1 in the conference guarantees the best seed in the conference tournament in March.  And second, finishing the regular season in 1st place in the CAA looks very good to the selection committee.  Members of that committee stated back in 2006 that Mason's strong CAA record is what got them an at-large bid.  It depends on how strong people believe the CAA is this season and for the most part I believe the overall concensus is that it is one of the better conferences.

-Mason needs one last good road win.  Take a look at some of the better teams the Patriots have played on the road this season: Duquesne, Dayton, Hofstra, and ODU. How of those did they win? One, against Duquesne in double overtime back in late December.  The selection committee loves road wins and although Mason pummeled Hofsta and ODU at the Patriot Center they still lost to both of them at their respective venues.  I do however believe that their current win streak trumps this issue a bit but a loss at the Siegel Center tonight gives the committee a reason to snub the Patriots and you can't ignore that.

Let me be clear that a loss tonight to VCU does not torpedo Mason's at-large chances.  However I just wanted to highlight how important I think this game might end up being in the grand scheme of things. 

Am I over-analyzing here? What are your thoughts on the impact of tonight's game?